C2V December Notes From The Trenches
Welcome friends! As we near the holiday season, it’s time to assess the year that was and take a look at the year that will be. In other words, buckle up; it’s prediction time (for real this time)!
If you missed yesterday’s bonus edition, we took stock of our predictions for 2023, but now the moment at least a handful of people have been waiting for…
C2V’s 2024 Predictions
Generative AI (in three parts):
Part I – As the market for broad-based large language models (LLMs) (e.g., ChatGPT, Bard) quickly becomes saturated, the focus for the next wave of big, ambitious, capital-intensive LLMs shifts to more domain-specific use cases.
Part II - Smaller players with standalone, niche GenAI products who raised gobs of money on the heels of the 2023 craze fade away, having failed to gain commercial traction as customers recognize that they are not products so much as features in search of a product (i.e., cool tech that isn’t especially useful).
Part III – AI-as-a-service and proprietary language models layered into existing enterprise software platforms scale rapidly across nearly all industries, quickly becoming (in aggregate) the largest segment of the overall GenAI market. Meanwhile, the market for broad-based LLMs follows the path of early cloud computing with a handful of players best positioned to manage the (very, very) large-scale technological, customer support, and financial requirements emerging as an oligopoly of sorts (similar to today’s cloud market), while the rest fall by the wayside.
Legal Tech explodes – One of the legacy industries slowest to embrace new technology (largely by design, as productivity isn’t that appealing when your revenue model is based on human hours), law firms recognize GenAI for the threat that it is and embrace new domain-specific language models for everything from research to drafting and editing.
Defense & Security Tech has a moment – As two major wars continue with no end in sight and geopolitical tensions remain broadly elevated, demand for security technology accelerates in the government and private (business and consumer) sectors.
The recent backlash against the Harvard, Penn, and MIT presidents’ responses to hate speech on their campuses is the match that lights the powder keg of resentment that has been building towards the higher education system over rapidly rising costs, declining admissions rates, and crippling post-grad loan burdens. Families vote with their feet (and wallets) and begin to explore alternative education platforms and products, leading to an acceleration in the formation and funding of EdTech startups providing professional training and credentials across both white and blue-collar professions as the foundation and reputation of incumbents in higher education begin to crumble.
Meta pulls the plug on Threads due to lack of usage, as X, formerly Twitter (despite its best efforts to self-combust) continues to be everyone’s short-form media app of choice.
Following Missouri’s landmark antitrust ruling against the National Association of Realtors (for price collusion), PropTech goes from a secondary/ancillary tool for residential real estate to the primary method of buying and selling homes, as fee competition has brokers scrambling for efficiency/productivity solutions.
At least one high-profile late-stage VC shocks the industry with the announcement that it is shuttering operations after having to realize massive losses on its 2020/2021 vintage fund(s). The parade of startups who raised hundreds of millions at multi-billion-dollar valuations in one or more late-stage rounds between 2019 and 2022 either selling for a fraction of their bubble-era valuations or shutting down entirely has already quietly begun (or managed to do so very publicly without anyone noticing) and will only accelerate this year as attempts to stretch the proceeds of fantasy-priced 2021/2022 mega-rounds proves to have only delayed the inevitable.
On the heels of recent customer and regulatory pushback on app store fees, big marketing and logistics efficiency gains (from several years of significant innovation and investment in retail tech), a wide-open playing field (with so many VCs having pivoted away from the space), and the reputational cover provided by some high-profile late-stage software company failures (see above), VC funding for consumer tech halts its multi-year slide and begins a multiyear rebound.
Lastly, Bonus (non-tech) Prediction: Neither Trump nor Biden is on the ticket in November (the former when he goes to prison or accepts a plea deal that includes a ban from running for public office and the latter when he is gently nudged out by his party following his former opponent’s exit from the race).
There you have it, folks, our 2024 predictions are out there for all the world to see (and throw back in our faces in 12 months). A very Happy New Year to you all!
Portfolio News
Argyle was invited to pitch at the December Demo Day on December 12, 2023. On December 11, Maret Thatcher will speak at the NECA (National Electrical Contractors Association) Oregon Columbia Chapter, presenting Argyle’s use case with Miller Electric Company.
On January 29, they will be in Orlando for the MEP Innovation Conference, speaking with customer Bowen Engineering.
Noteworthy AI Features
Noteworthy AI has been featured in several publications and videos this month. NVIDIA showcased it in their latest I AM AI video (at 0:45). PG&E mentioned Noteworthy AI in this video, and Hartford Business Journal published a piece showcasing the company.
Tarform is bringing the ancient vehicle into the new age
It feels like such an obvious thing to electrify an ancient vehicle that’s loud,” has gas, and an engine between the rider’s legs, he said. “I just felt like, there’s definitely room for making something cleaner here,” he told FootPrint Coalition. So, he set out to bring the motorcycle, which dates back to 1885, into the future.
Phalanx protects company data by automatically securing and tracking sensitive documents
Recent history is littered with high-profile data breaches, leading to all manner of reputational, regulatory, and financial penalties that can be difficult to recover from. And it’s against that backdrop that Virginia-based startup Phalanx is setting out to help, with a lightweight DLP and document-mapping platform that automatically monitors and secures sensitive documents across the likes of Office 365, Google Workspaces, and local machines.
Case Study: Miller EV Solutions Expedites EV Charger Installation with Condoit Mobile App
As the demand for electric vehicle (EV) infrastructure surges, Miller EV Solutions faces a monumental challenge: executing site walks for projects across the nation on deadline — and with efficiency in mind.
With hundreds of locations in need of assessment, coordination was a logistical puzzle that needed an innovative solution.
Enter Condoit, an app designed to quickly and accurately collect electrical infrastructure information in the field, plan for new equipment, and analyze new designs according to NEC standards.
Driver Technologies Launches Video Telematics-Based Driver Score To Help Insurance Companies Revolutionize Insurance Risk
Driver Technologies, Inc. (Driver), an AI-based mobility tech company that delivers a safer driving experience, announced today that its Driver Technologies Rating Service Inc. (DTRS) is rolling out its newly launched Driver Score to commercial fleets and insurance partners. Driver Score is the first video telematics-based score using your mobile device that helps insurance companies underwrite and classify the risk instead of implementing traditional factors such as demographics and credit scores.
Steelheads New NADCAP Scanner Covered in Products Finishing Magazine
Steelhead Technologies is excited to announce the recent coverage of Steelhead Technologies’ deployment at our partner’s plant in Clearwater, Florida. The metal finishing plant saw a huge opportunity in working with Steelhead. It took their processes completely digital by eliminating tedious paper processes required for NADCAP compliance and replacing them with Steelhead’s integrated and robust plant operating platform.
Job Opportunities
Our fast-growing portfolio companies have exciting career opportunities.
Condoit empowers electrical contractors with design tools to swiftly and precisely collect electrical infrastructure data, create as-built diagrams, design new systems, validate designs, and generate bill-of-materials.